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Oil industry: Current high oil price is reality also be future

From;    Author:Stand originally
The dollar depreciates and fluidity is the apparent element with epicycle oil rising price only, and the supply and demand that stretchs tight increasingly closely just is the immanent logic therein. According to dependency analysis, long-term- - the dependency of dollar index and oil price is not apparent, and short-term- - oil price goes sign is relatively subtle to the change of dollar exchange rate.

Lack stretch supply and requirement, cause global petroleum supply and demand to be in fragile balance for long in. We think, the dimensions of prospective oil market will measure a decision by supply, and the price is decided by demand. Times of low oil price fears already becoming the history, reality of since of high oil price also will be future.

According to " of theory of height of output of oil of " whole world, world oil output is in before long will reach crop peak in the future, 2008-2048 year it is the big probability period of time that peak value appears. Be worth to expect supply and demand alleviates during or will appear 2010, the put into production of new oil field of corresponding Yu Yilang, Kazakstan and American Mexican bay period.

Price control brings about price of domestic and international oil to differ, add coal dominant model the sources of energy consumes a structure, changed Chinese requirement infirmly the sensitivity to oil price; And the trade of heavy chemical industry that reverses hard and city change a course, and dweller income level carries advanced element continuously, those who cause Chinese petroleum demand is apparent reduce become extravagant hopes. . . Each country experience shows, outside reducing petroleum demand to not have two kinds of ways, it is to raise the sources of energy to use efficiency, another kind is to reduce economy to grow rate. However, raise the sources of energy to use efficiency to be accomplished in one move hard apparently, accordingly, speed of progress of proper control economy is demand of petroleum of Chinese slow down is helpless it seems that lift.

We think, china is right of economic slowdown be able to bear or endure get power, suffer what compose of be confined to builds harmonious society to appeal to beg, and resource supply tie is the bottleneck that restricts economic progress from beginning to end however. Be " grows painful " or " short painful " ? Also be the hard choice that we must face.

Replace in what replace the sources of energy before effect is reflected in the round, because the whole world is burgeoning,prospective petroleum supply and demand upgrades contradictorily of the country rise abruptly and be destined, what cannot decide is the specific time that its erupt only. The crucial problem that solves urgently is, in issueing economy one round to grow cycle, we whether the concussion of avoid oil crisis.

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